Short-term Real Interest Rate Research Articles

A Post-Pandemic New Normal for Interest Rates in Emerging Bond Markets? Evidence from Chile

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers intensely debated the extent of the decline in the steady-state short-term real interest rate—the so-called equilibrium or natural rate of interest. Given the recent sharp increase in interest rates, we revisit this question in an emerging bond market context and offer a Chilean perspective using a dynamic term structure finance model estimated directly on the prices of individual Chilean inflation indexed bonds with adjustments for bond-specific liquidity risk and real term premia. We estimate that the equilibrium real rate in Chile fell about 2 and a half percentage points in the 2003-2022 period and has remained low since then.

Analysis of macroeconomic determinants of non-performance in consumer and mortgage loans

We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) in two dynamic unbalanced panels: consumer loans and mortgages, utilizing quarterly data for eight countries from 1992 to 2019. The article assesses which variables are key determinant factors, both in and out-of-sample, and whether they have the same impact in both portfolios. These variables are the lagged ratio of NPLs, credit level, real GDP, short-term real interest rates, real house price indices, and stock indices. We compare different econometric techniques applied to intermediate-sized panels and evaluate forecasting abilities. Results support pooled estimations, and mortgages exhibit higher sensitivities and better forecasting performance.

Linkages Between Property Prices and Macroeconomic Determinants: Evidence from Germany

The global financial and economic crisis has led to significant efforts to better integrate property price channels into macroeconomic models and to improve models. This paper deals with property prices in Germany and their determinants in the period Q1 2000‒Q4 2022. Since then, property prices in Germany have risen considerably. The models regularly use indicators that are aligned with the specificities of property, but less macroeconomic determinants. From economic models, theoretical modes of action between macroeconomic determinants and property prices are generally known. Regarding Germany, there are only limited studies on the direct influences of economic determinants. In the context of a regression analysis, this paper examines the relationship between the selected variables that directly drive house prices. On the one hand the results confirm a positive relationship between property prices and real GDP. On the other hand, a negative correlation was found for real short-term interest rates and inflation. In this study, no significant relationships were found between house prices and unemployment rate and long-term interest rates, despite a culture of long-term fixed interest rates in Germany.

Market-Based Estimates of the Natural Real Rate: Evidence from Latin American Bond Markets

We provide market-based estimates of the natural real rate, that is, the steady-state short-term real interest rate, for Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. Our approach uses a dynamic term structure finance model estimated directly on the prices of individual inflation indexed bonds with adjustments for bond-specific liquidity and real term premia. First, we find that inflation-indexed bond liquidity premia in all three countries are sizable with significant variation. Second, we find large differences in their estimated equilibrium real rates: Brazil’s is large and volatile, Mexico’s is stable but elevated, while Chile’s is low and has fallen persistently. Although uncertain, our estimates could have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy in these three countries.

A Simple Correction for Misspecification in Trend-Cycle Decompositions with an Application to Estimating r*

We propose a simple correction for misspecification in trend-cycle decompositions when the stochastic trend is assumed to be a random walk process but the estimated trend displays some serial correlation in first differences. Possible sources of misspecification that would otherwise be hard to detect and correct for include a small amount of measurement error, omitted variables, or minor approximation errors in model dynamics when estimating trend. Our proposed correction is conducted via application of a univariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition to the preliminary estimated trend and we show with Monte Carlo analysis that our approach can work as well as if the original model used to estimate trend were correctly specified. We demonstrate the empirical relevance of the correction in an application to estimating r* as the trend of a risk-free short-term real interest rate. We find that our corrected estimate of r* is considerably smoother than the preliminary estimate from a multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a vector error correction model, consistent with the presence of at least a small amount of measurement error in some of the variables included in the multivariate model.

The effect of political and bureaucratic regime changes on Australia's real interest rate

We attempt to find out if changes in political and bureaucratic regimes lead to significant mean shifts in the Australian short-term real interest rate, using quarterly data for the period 1970:3 to 2019:1. Utilising a sophisticated structural break test, three distinct structural breaks are found in Australia's real interest rate. The empirical results show that a model estimated to consider the shifts in the political regime explains more of the variation in the real interest rate compared to a model that incorporates shifts in the bureaucratic regime. Results from several non-nested model selection tests also confirm this finding.

On the Predictive Value of the (Shadow) Real Interest Rate for the Realized Volatility of Gold-Price Returns

We use a quasi-out-of-sample forecasting experiment to study the predictive value of a short-term real interest rate for the volatility of gold-price returns. To this end, we use monthly U.S. data for the sample period from 1990/1 to 2022/2, and we study a standard effective-federal-funds-based real interest rate as well as a shadow real interest rate, which accounts for the recent extended zero-lower-bound period. We find that the real interest rate has predictive value for the subsequent realized volatility, and this predictive value turns out to be stronger in several specifications of our forecasting experiment for the shadow real interest rate than for the standard real interest rate. We evaluate the predictive value of forecasts in terms of an asymmetric loss function. Because gold is considered as a safe-haven asset, our results provide some important implications for portfolio decisions of investors.

The impact of monetary variables on achieving economic growth - Bahrain as a model for the period (1995-2020)

This research aims to highlight the role of monetary economic variables in achieving economic growth in Bahrain, depending on the program, EViews10. The static test was used through the application of the expanded Dicke-Fuller test. The research found that 86% of the changes that occur in economic growth are explained by the variables The independent input into the model and the remainder due to variables that were not included in the model. The results of the research showed an inverse relationship between the long-term real interest rate with GDP, and a direct relationship between each of the short-term real interest rate with GDP The total, and a direct relationship between the broad money supply, and the rate of inflation, with the gross domestic product.

Economic Relationships Between Selling and Rental Prices in the Italian Housing Market

In this paper the relationship between price and rent dynamics in the Italian housing market is studied. The aim is reached through the implementation of a multivariate autoregressive model (VAR), that makes it possible to explain the interdependencies of multiple time series. The analysis considers a series of macroeconomic variables in the model that in the deductive interpretation of the phenomenon and on the basis of other experiences in current literature, were evaluated as potential keys to understanding the relationship between prices and rents. The variables selected, along with residential realestate prices and real residential rents, were: the real short term interest rate, the time series of the annual differences between the actual and the expected Gross Domestic Product, real investments in housing. The data series cover the period from 1980 to 2008. The results obtained show some peculiarities of the Italian real estate market.

Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk

As highlighted by recent literature, long-term foreign exchange risk premia (FRP) of a currency pair tend to covary negatively with short-term real interest rate differentials (RIRD) of the pair. We fit an affine term structure model for 9 major currencies against the US dollar and estimate two components of this covariance: the real risk premia (RRP) component and the inflation risk premia differential (IRPD) component. We find that the IRPD component is significantly negative for all currency pairs in our sample. We propose a macro-finance model to understand the types of shocks that generate such covariance.

Comparative effect of short-term credit granted to agriculture on agricultural added value in the West African countries

PurposeThe paper analyzes the response of agricultural value added to credit and real interest rate shocks in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and make a short-term comparative effect analysis of credit granted to the agricultural sector on agricultural value added among member countries.Design/methodology/approachFirst, in order to estimate impulse response functions (IRFs) and study shocks, a panel VAR model is used. Second the paper uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with the associated error correction model to make a comparative analysis of the effect of agricultural credit on agricultural value added in the WAEMU.FindingsResults shows that: (1) credit stimulates agricultural value added only in the medium and long term; (2) in the case of WAEMU, credit only becomes a means of lifting the constraint of capital underutilization after three years; (3) short-term credit granted to agriculture in WAEMU has a weak and differentiated effect on agricultural value added from one country to another.Practical implicationsIt is imperative to implement a policy of lowering real short-term interest rates. Moreover, a monetary policy that favors direct financing of agriculture to the detriment of that oriented toward market financing is to be prioritized.Originality/valueThe originality of this paper is that it makes the link between macroeconomics and agriculture. It shows how the monetary instrument can be manipulated to improve the performance of agriculture. Actually, in WAEMU, the financing of agriculture is provided by the market. This paper proposes a new approach which is direct financing. The paper offers possibilities for the coordination of agricultural policies in the WAEMU.

Effects of cyclical policies on economic growth in the Franc Zone

This article finds its affiliation in the budgetary theory of the price level. It proposes the simultaneous study of cyclical shocks in the Franc Zone, using a structural PVAR model combining activity, prices, a real short-term interest rate, the primary budget balance and the external debt. The effects and transmission times of budgetary and monetary impulses on GDP appear to be differentiated in the two short-term monetary unions. The cyclical components of the BEAC and BCEAO refinancing rates are positively linked to those of the primary deficits in the Franc Zone. Fiscal policies have a negative effect on GDP growth. However, monetary policies produce positive shocks on the development of economic growth in these two monetary unions. It is therefore necessary that the monetary authorities relax the rules of monetary policy by reducing interest rates, which will also revive activity. And governments then have no incentive to increase their deficit.

Long-Term Foreign Exchange Risk Premia and Inflation Risk

As highlighted by recent literature, long-term foreign exchange risk premia (FRP) of a currency pair tend to covary negatively with short-term real interest rates differentials (RIRD) of the pair. We fit an affine term structure model for 9 major currencies against the US dollar and estimate two components of this covariance: the real risk premia (RRP) component and the inflation risk premia differential (IRPD) component. We find that the IRPD component is significantly negative for all currency pairs in our sample. We propose a macro-finance model to understand the type of shocks that generates such covariance.

The Relationship Between Financial Condition and Business Cycle in Mongolia

This paper examines the interactions between financial conditions and business cycles in Mongolia, a small open economy, heavily depending on commodity exports. We construct two financial conditions indexes based on the reduced form IS model and the vector autoregression (VAR) model as surveillance tools to quantify the degree of the financial conditions. We find that real short-term interest rate and real effective exchange rate gap get a higher weight in the FCIs. Both business and financial cycles are often more pronounced in Mongolia, and financial condition is dependent of the financial and monetary policies in place. The analysis of the predictive power of the FCIs for business cycles shows that they have predictive information for the near-term economic activities. FCIs are also helpful in signaling inflation turning points.

Absolute income inequality and rising house prices

AbstractIncome inequality and house prices have risen sharply in developed countries during 1975–2010. In line with theoretical models, we argue that this co-movement is no coincidence, but that inequality has driven up house prices on the grounds that it raises the aggregate demand for housing. Our results suggest that absolute inequality and house prices in most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries were positively correlated and cointegrated, whereas relative inequality and mean income were not significant long-run determinants. This finding indicates that the surge in OECD house prices in part can be explained by a top-income-induced increase in housing demand, and that it is important to consider the interaction of rising mean income and its relative distribution when studying potential correlates of house prices. Moreover, our results confirm previous findings that the short-term real interest rate also is an important correlate of house prices.

Predictive ability of financial variables in changing economic circumstances

We analyze three key financial variables, the term spread, real stock returns and the real short-term interest rate, and study which economic factors underlie changes in their predictive power for GDP growth in a large set of industrialized countries. Our results show that the enhanced predictive content of financial variables is connected to increased GDP and stock market volatility as well as turning points in business cycles. Periods with a zero lower bound of interest rates appear to reduce the predictive ability of stock markets. Moreover, we find qualified evidence that inflation persistence increases the predictive content of financial variables.

Global real interest rate dynamics from the late 19th century to today

There is a long-standing economic debate to what extent interest rates are determined by domestic versus international forces. Using a time series factor model, we estimate two common global factors for the short-term real interest rate for a panel of 17 advanced economies from 1871 to 2013. Our analysis shows that more than 50% of the variation in national real interest rates can be explained by our two international factors alone. While our data encompasses several macroeconomic regime changes, we find in general that real interest rates are more responsive to international conditions during times of high international capital mobility, such as the post Bretton Woods period. Our first common global factor can be interpreted as an approximation of the global short-term equilibrium real interest rate. Using an error-correction approach, we show that that the global real interest rate acts as a force of attraction for national real interest rates. Moreover, our factor analysis can also explain the long-term downward trend of national real interest rates that started in the 1980s, meaning that the forces of secular stagnation have acted on a global level. Finally, we estimate a Panel-VAR model, which allows us to show that the national business cycle is highly responsive to our two common global factor variables, thus indicating that small economies have increasing difficulties to insulate themselves from international macroeconomic conditions. Our analysis is important insofar as it shows that during periods of high capital mobility Central Banks might have even less influence in setting the domestic short-term real interest rate than what is commonly assumed by most neo-keynesian macroeconomic models.

The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation

Based on an empirically attractive Gaussian dynamic term structure model and data on the short-term real interest rate and per capita real consumption, this paper examines the information content of the nominal term structure of interest rates with respect to inflation, real interest rates and risk premium effects. The paper finds a number of interesting results, which have monetary policy implications. First, it shows that the suggested model fits well the data and provides estimates of real interest rates and expected inflation rates which are very close to those given by survey data. Second, it provides clear cut evidence that the nominal term structure is mainly determined by movements in real interest rates and, to a lesser extent, by inflation and risk premium effects. These results mean that term spreads between long and short-term nominal rates fail to forecast future changes in inflation rates because are dominated by real term structure effects, which are not orthogonal to inflation rate shocks (changes). Third, to retrieve information from the term spread models of nominal interest rates about future inflation rate changes, the paper suggests a regression model which adjusts the nominal interest rates term spreads for the real term structure effects.

THE OUTPUT EULER EQUATION AND REAL INTEREST RATE REGIMES

Output Euler equations (OEE) for the US deliver slope estimates that are not significantly different from zero. This finding is counterintuitive as it implies a zero elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) and aggregate demand movements that are nonresponsive to the short-term real interest rate. This paper shows that failure to account for regime changes in the dynamics of the real interest rate is responsible for this result. Based on a joint specification for the OEE and the real interest rate in an unobserved components model framework with Markov-switching parameters, the means, variances, and degrees of persistence of the real interest rate are different for the periods 1966–1980, 1980–1985, and 1985–2015. Once these regime changes are taken into account, the EIS estimate is 0.1 and no longer statistically insignificant. This finding is robust to alternative measures of the output gap as well as different specifications for the natural real interest rate.

Real interest rate volatility in the Pakistani economy: A regime switching approach

This paper assesses the volatility of short term real interest rates in Pakistan using the Markov switching model and drawing on monthly data from January 1964 to March 2016. This model holds that if a random walk pattern is not visible in the real interest rate series, fluctuations are temporary and the interest rate will eventually converge around the mean value. The results reveal that real interest rates in Pakistan have exhibited high volatility since 1973 due to high budget deficits and other sources of instability in the economy.